Our markets

We maintain our focus on St Petersburg and Moscow markets, as we believe these two geographies hold significant potential for growth.

A combination of Russian macro factors and local supply-demand developments mean that the upper-economy, comfort-class, and business-class segments in which we operate should see robust, sustainable growth for years to come. We are already among the leading players in both of these geographies, with a strong reputation as a reliable developer of high-quality housing. Etalon Group’s strategic aim is to leverage its strong position to deliver profitable and rapid growth in the years ahead.

Demand

The main factors driving demand growth are urbanisation, the need for better living conditions, housing affordability and the increasing availability of mortgages.

Urbanisation

The population growth rate in Moscow and St Petersburg has been at levels seen in large European countries, while having a significantly lower unemployment rate.

Growing Population, With Even Higher Growth Rate For Employed Persons

Unemployment Still Low

Population Growth Rate (CAGR 08-17)

Population Growth Rate (CAGR 08-17)

Employed Persons Growth Rate (CAGR 08-17)

Employed Persons Growth Rate (CAGR 08-17)

Unemployment Rate (2017)

Umeployment Rate (2017)

Housing affordability and living conditions

The ratio of the average wage to the cost of 1 square metre of housing is 0.5x in Moscow and 0.6x in St Petersburg, which is 140% higher than it was in 2000. In addition, these indicators are very close to the average housing affordability index in major European cities, which is 0.62x, which indicates that the regions where Etalon Group operates are highly developed.

Residential Property Is More Afforadable Than Ever ...

... And Affordability Level Is Now Very Close To EU Average …

The amount of living space per capita in Russia is still low compared to other countries- housing per capita is 22 sqm in Moscow and 24 sqm in St Petersburg. In Eastern Europe, for example, there is an average of 30 square metres per person; France and Germany have more than 40 square metres per person. Due to the fact that people are striving to improve their living conditions and expand their living space, it is expected that this growth trend will continue in the future.

But Housing Per Capita Still Has Significant Upside

Supply-demand Balance

The Russian real estate development market has historically been highly fragmented, with only a small number of larger players controlling significant shares of the market. This is changing, though, as the biggest players have managed to consolidate the market, supported by many smaller players struggling to survive economic cycles, as well as regulatory changes that favour the market leaders. Over the years, the largest and most reliable players have also earned better reputations among customers, and they have developed internal know-how that gives them advantages over other players.

Outlook Shows Demand Outpacing Supply, with Significant Opportunity for Price Growth

MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO

  • Uncovered deficit for 19 years after 2023
  • Opportunity to increase price by 9% annually to balance supply and demand

HEALTHY GROWTH SCENARIO

  • Uncovered deficit for 22 years after 2023
  • Opportunity to increase price by 11% annually to balance supply and demand